JNBA, Season 8, December

JNBA Season 8 - December

East

Playoff Teams

1. Washington (10-4 / 32-10):  Washington continues to struggle since the injury to Jack Jay.  To compound matters, they've also had two of their backup bigs go down for the season.  And yet, even missing one of the top ten players in the league, Washington still went 10-4 in December, and still holds the one seed.  The East is theirs, barring something incredible.
2. Cincinnati (9-5 / 29-13):  Cincinnati continues to avoid injuries, but has been unable to close on Washington.  To be sure, 9-5 is a quality month, and right now Cincy is flirting with a 60-game-winning pace, which would be the best showing this team has ever made.  The question is whether or not they can stay ahead of New Jersey.  And stay healthy.
3. New Jersey (8-6 / 27-15):  New Jersey will get Greg Lozano and the oft-injured Joshua Chilton back in the next few weeks.  I have no doubt that their healthy team is better than Cincinnati, and maybe good enough to upset Washington.  Too bad their healthy stretches never seem to last long.
4. Philadelphia (10-4 / 26-16):  Philly put together as good a December as anyone in the East, and it moved them up to fourth, with a three-game cushion.  They're a team with an earned reputation for avoiding injuries, and it seems to be paying off.  With the exception of Pittsburgh (and maybe Tampa Bay), nobody below them is terribly likely to run them down.  A four seed would be a big accomplishment for this young team.
5. Boston (8-6 / 23-19):  It's not that Boston had a great month, it's that they avoided the implosion that took out Atlanta and Baltimore.  Make no mistake, Boston is not a great team, merely an average-to-good team.  But they're unlikely to fall apart, and that should be good enough for a playoff berth.
6. Tampa Bay (10-4 / 23-19):  Last month's prediction that Tampa would improve seems to have come true.  This team is still not good enough to truly contend; Stuart Kallman's MVP days are behind him.  But they're still dangerous.
7. Miami (7-7 / 22-20):  Miami is trucking along, putting together a decent season.  Very much on the bubble.
8. Pittsburgh (5-9 / 22-20):  Pittsburgh has only won a bit over a third of their games without Ronnie Gilfillian in the lineup.  And he won't be back until the end of January.  They're a sub-500 team without him, but they're a top 5 team with him.  Expect Pittsburgh to be just under 500 at the end of January, but push up to a six seed by the end.  And they'll be a tough matchup for anyone in the playoffs.

Non-Playoff Teams

1. Atlanta (2-12 / 19-23):  Atlanta planned to lose Peter Davidson; he's very fragile.  But Albert Bolling going down took Atlanta from a winning record to a losing one in short order.  Funny, nobody thinks that well of him, but every time he goes down his team crashes and burns.  Hard to know which direction this will break in; we should know by the end of January how seriously to take Atlanta now that Bolling is back.
2. Baltimore (4-10 / 18-24):  Baltimore struggled through December, and losing Howard McClendon compounded the matter.  Not a playoff year.
3. Chicago (8-6 / 17-25):  Chicago put together a respectable December, but they'll need to really kick into high gear if they want to make the playoffs this year.  Don't count them out.
4. New York (8-6 / 17-25):  New York rallied in December, only to lose Kenneth Kauffman for the year.  Now two of their best players are out for the year, and the season is pretty much over.  The injury fairy has worked New York over pretty well; at least they'll get a decent draft pick.
5. Orlando (7-7 / 17-25):  Orlando had a decent December, but something unusual will have to break for them to contend for a playoff spot this year.  
6. Detroit (5-9 / 14-28):  Detroit is done for the year.
7. Cleveland (4/10 / 9-33):  And how.

West

Playoff Teams

1. Houston (12-2 / 37-5):  Houston is continuing to be incredibly lucky in avoiding injury.  Monroy and Colvin staying healthy is fortunate; Rodney Burmeister staying healthy is a rarity.  Nevertheless, they seem to have proved that, when healthy, they can hang with Kansas City.  Barring injury, they should have a real shot at the conference title.
2. Kansas City (13-1 / 37-5):  Kansas City got Sean Caswell back, and has left a trail of bodies in its wake.  I think people forgot about just how good this team is when healthy, but they're as good as anyone in the league right now.
3. Denver (9-5 / 27-15):  Denver puts together another solid, if unremarkable, month.  This team is designed to try and compete with the Big Two; instead, they're in danger of being run down by San Antonio.  Denver needs a lot of things to work out to challenge for the Conference Championship.
4. San Antonio (12-2 / 27-15):  San Antonio got Clinton Horney back and went on a rampage.  12-2 is better than you should expect from this team, but they've certainly made their claim to the four-seed, if nothing else.
5. Los Angeles (8-6 / 25-17):  Los Angeles continues trucking along, although the loss of SG Donald Pyles doesn't make their lives much easier in the loaded Western Conference.  
6. Minnesota (7-7 / 25-17):  Minnesota had a mediocre month with no good reason for it.  There are too many nasty teams in this conference to take a month off; Minnesota can be a very scary team in the playoffs with Brett Whitesell.  They'll make the playoffs, but they'll need a decent seed to do maximum damage.
7. Sacramento (9-5 / 22-20):  Sacramento has been battling injuries all year.  They finally got Allen Farber and Adam Jason back this month, only to lose Ronald Irby for the year.  They still have a very strong shot to hold onto a playoff spot; the five-game lead alone should allow them to do that.  But it's hard not to be a little disappointed.
8. Las Vegas (7-7 / 21-21):  Las Vegas' bloated payroll gets to the midway point at 500 exactly.  But Franklin Crowl is back, and that means that Las Vegas is suddenly as good as anyone.  Barring serious injury, look for them to win 60-70% of their remaining games.  But that will only get them, maybe, a six seed.  Nevertheless, Las Vegas should be treated with extreme caution.

Non-Playoff Teams

1. Portland (2-12 / 17-25):  Portland's promising season fell apart rather suddenly, for no really good reason.  But now Simon Gurski is down for months, and the injury count keeps on piling up.  They should rally as their team heals, but the question is whether they can outrun both Seattle and Sacramento.  I'm betting no.
2. Seattle (3-11 / 17-25):  Seattle loses Ronald Heisler and suddenly goes 3-11; not a coincidence.  He's back, but Seattle is now 5 games behind Sacramento, the most likely team for them to catch.    Slim odds.
3. Dallas (3-11 / 15-27):  No injuries for Dallas, just good-old-fashioned getting outclassed.  They're a super-young team with a bright future.  No rush.
4. Phoenix (6-8 / 15-27):  Phoenix had a good month, but has no serious shot at a playoff spot; without an incredible tear, which I doubt they have in them.
5. San Diego (8-6 / 14-28):  San Diego gets Earl Phan back, but this team has no shot.  
6. St. Louis (4-10 / 9-33):  More draft picks!
7. San Francisco (2-10 / 7-35):  Splat goes San Francisco!  Rebuilding time!