JNBA Season 8, Midseason Awards...


MVP:

We have two categories, players that are the best in the league, and players that have made huge differences for their teams.

Great Players:

Danny Polston (SG, Den):  Arguably the best pure player in the league, he's also the best player on a 27-15 team that should, on paper, be better.

Sean Caswell (SF, KC):  You can't have an MVP discussion without Sean Caswell, but he has missed a third of the season so far, and Kansas City never missed a beat.  Hard to really vote for a guy like that.

Carlos Hermann (SG, Was):  Hermann's always struggled to get respect, because he shares the team with Jack Jay.  Now, Jay's out for a few months, and Washington's only been able to win 60-70% of its games since.  That's still good, but it's hard to argue that Hermann is the best player in the JNBA based on that.

Franklin Curenton (SF, Sac):  Everyone's favorite choker, Curenton is the only reason that Sacramento is 500, since every other starter has been injured this year.

Difference Makers:

Steven Holmquist (SF, Cin):  Holmquist has been lurking in the background on several mediocre Cincinnati teams, and his seasons have often been marred by injury.  This season he's been injury-free and Cincy has invested in Ramiro Deltrick, a quality SG in free agency, and now Cincinnati seems a lock for a 2-4 seed.  You have to give Holmquist credit.

Steve Monroy (PG, Hou):  Yes, Monroy's old, and yes, Houston's been unreasonably healthy, and yes, Houston now has Mike Colvin.  But you have to give some love to the best player on a 37-5 team.

Franklin Stoops (C, KC):  Stoops is the heir apparent to Sean Caswell in Kansas City.  And when Caswell went down for a month, they still went 12-2.  Perhaps some of that was luck, but there can be no doubt that Stoops is the real deal, easily the best offensive center in the game.

Current Rankings:

1.  Franklin Stoops
2.  Steven Holmquist
3.  Danny Polston


Rookie of the Year

1. Stephen Abrego (SG, Dal, #1 Overall):  Abrego has been a difference-maker for Dallas this year.  True, Dallas is not going to make the playoffs, but there weren't making them when they had Jeffrey Sherer either.  Since trading Sherer for draft picks that yielded Abrego, Dallas has not gotten noticeably worse, and has a lot of upside.  Abrego has not been a super-star by a long shot; people looking for the next Franklin Crowl were disappointed in him.  But he's holding his own in the Western Conference, and that's as much as you can hope for sometimes.
2. Todd Witte (PG, Orl, #4 Overall):  Witte fell to Orlando at the fourth pick, but has clearly proved that he belongs in the JNBA.  Orlando is not terribly good this year, but Witte and Caro have been showing a chemistry together that suggests the potential for an excellent partnership.  
3. Earl Phan (SF, SD, #13 Overall):  Phan was a prospect that was praised for his talent, and bemoaned for his fragile body.  San Diego took a flier on him at #13, and received the mixed blessing.  When on the court, Phan is an excellent player.  However, midway through December, Phan blew out his knee, and will be watching the rest of San Diego's season from the bench.

Title Contenders:

1. Washington:  Washington has kept the top spot in the East, despite not having Jack Jay for two straight months.  I don't know if Washington is better than Houston or Kansas City.  But I do know that there is no second team in the East to challenge Washington, unless New Jersey manages to stay healthy for more than a week at a time.  The smart, conservative choice to make their third straight Championship series.
2. Kansas City:  Tied with Houston, and not as dependent on remaining healthy.  Houston looks very, very, good this year, but you bet against Kansas City at your own peril.
3. Houston:  Houston only needs to make the playoffs with Steve Monroy and Mike Colvin intact.  Monroy is still the best playoff scorer in the league; they have as good a chance as anyone.
4. Denver:  Denver has never done well in the playoffs, but the overall excellence of their roster makes them as good a bet as anyone left.
5. New Jersey:  If healthy, I believe New Jersey is one of the top four teams in the JNBA.  They just suck at staying healthy.  But they still deserve inclusion.
6. Cincinnati:  Unlike NJ and Was, they've been untouched by injury, but are merely keeping pace. Not a strong bet.
7. Minnesota:  Yeah, they had a 7-7 December with no injuries of note.  But Brett Whitesell has proven to be a monster in the playoffs, and thanks to him, Minnesota still has an outside chance.

JNBA, Season 8, December

JNBA Season 8 - December

East

Playoff Teams

1. Washington (10-4 / 32-10):  Washington continues to struggle since the injury to Jack Jay.  To compound matters, they've also had two of their backup bigs go down for the season.  And yet, even missing one of the top ten players in the league, Washington still went 10-4 in December, and still holds the one seed.  The East is theirs, barring something incredible.
2. Cincinnati (9-5 / 29-13):  Cincinnati continues to avoid injuries, but has been unable to close on Washington.  To be sure, 9-5 is a quality month, and right now Cincy is flirting with a 60-game-winning pace, which would be the best showing this team has ever made.  The question is whether or not they can stay ahead of New Jersey.  And stay healthy.
3. New Jersey (8-6 / 27-15):  New Jersey will get Greg Lozano and the oft-injured Joshua Chilton back in the next few weeks.  I have no doubt that their healthy team is better than Cincinnati, and maybe good enough to upset Washington.  Too bad their healthy stretches never seem to last long.
4. Philadelphia (10-4 / 26-16):  Philly put together as good a December as anyone in the East, and it moved them up to fourth, with a three-game cushion.  They're a team with an earned reputation for avoiding injuries, and it seems to be paying off.  With the exception of Pittsburgh (and maybe Tampa Bay), nobody below them is terribly likely to run them down.  A four seed would be a big accomplishment for this young team.
5. Boston (8-6 / 23-19):  It's not that Boston had a great month, it's that they avoided the implosion that took out Atlanta and Baltimore.  Make no mistake, Boston is not a great team, merely an average-to-good team.  But they're unlikely to fall apart, and that should be good enough for a playoff berth.
6. Tampa Bay (10-4 / 23-19):  Last month's prediction that Tampa would improve seems to have come true.  This team is still not good enough to truly contend; Stuart Kallman's MVP days are behind him.  But they're still dangerous.
7. Miami (7-7 / 22-20):  Miami is trucking along, putting together a decent season.  Very much on the bubble.
8. Pittsburgh (5-9 / 22-20):  Pittsburgh has only won a bit over a third of their games without Ronnie Gilfillian in the lineup.  And he won't be back until the end of January.  They're a sub-500 team without him, but they're a top 5 team with him.  Expect Pittsburgh to be just under 500 at the end of January, but push up to a six seed by the end.  And they'll be a tough matchup for anyone in the playoffs.

Non-Playoff Teams

1. Atlanta (2-12 / 19-23):  Atlanta planned to lose Peter Davidson; he's very fragile.  But Albert Bolling going down took Atlanta from a winning record to a losing one in short order.  Funny, nobody thinks that well of him, but every time he goes down his team crashes and burns.  Hard to know which direction this will break in; we should know by the end of January how seriously to take Atlanta now that Bolling is back.
2. Baltimore (4-10 / 18-24):  Baltimore struggled through December, and losing Howard McClendon compounded the matter.  Not a playoff year.
3. Chicago (8-6 / 17-25):  Chicago put together a respectable December, but they'll need to really kick into high gear if they want to make the playoffs this year.  Don't count them out.
4. New York (8-6 / 17-25):  New York rallied in December, only to lose Kenneth Kauffman for the year.  Now two of their best players are out for the year, and the season is pretty much over.  The injury fairy has worked New York over pretty well; at least they'll get a decent draft pick.
5. Orlando (7-7 / 17-25):  Orlando had a decent December, but something unusual will have to break for them to contend for a playoff spot this year.  
6. Detroit (5-9 / 14-28):  Detroit is done for the year.
7. Cleveland (4/10 / 9-33):  And how.

West

Playoff Teams

1. Houston (12-2 / 37-5):  Houston is continuing to be incredibly lucky in avoiding injury.  Monroy and Colvin staying healthy is fortunate; Rodney Burmeister staying healthy is a rarity.  Nevertheless, they seem to have proved that, when healthy, they can hang with Kansas City.  Barring injury, they should have a real shot at the conference title.
2. Kansas City (13-1 / 37-5):  Kansas City got Sean Caswell back, and has left a trail of bodies in its wake.  I think people forgot about just how good this team is when healthy, but they're as good as anyone in the league right now.
3. Denver (9-5 / 27-15):  Denver puts together another solid, if unremarkable, month.  This team is designed to try and compete with the Big Two; instead, they're in danger of being run down by San Antonio.  Denver needs a lot of things to work out to challenge for the Conference Championship.
4. San Antonio (12-2 / 27-15):  San Antonio got Clinton Horney back and went on a rampage.  12-2 is better than you should expect from this team, but they've certainly made their claim to the four-seed, if nothing else.
5. Los Angeles (8-6 / 25-17):  Los Angeles continues trucking along, although the loss of SG Donald Pyles doesn't make their lives much easier in the loaded Western Conference.  
6. Minnesota (7-7 / 25-17):  Minnesota had a mediocre month with no good reason for it.  There are too many nasty teams in this conference to take a month off; Minnesota can be a very scary team in the playoffs with Brett Whitesell.  They'll make the playoffs, but they'll need a decent seed to do maximum damage.
7. Sacramento (9-5 / 22-20):  Sacramento has been battling injuries all year.  They finally got Allen Farber and Adam Jason back this month, only to lose Ronald Irby for the year.  They still have a very strong shot to hold onto a playoff spot; the five-game lead alone should allow them to do that.  But it's hard not to be a little disappointed.
8. Las Vegas (7-7 / 21-21):  Las Vegas' bloated payroll gets to the midway point at 500 exactly.  But Franklin Crowl is back, and that means that Las Vegas is suddenly as good as anyone.  Barring serious injury, look for them to win 60-70% of their remaining games.  But that will only get them, maybe, a six seed.  Nevertheless, Las Vegas should be treated with extreme caution.

Non-Playoff Teams

1. Portland (2-12 / 17-25):  Portland's promising season fell apart rather suddenly, for no really good reason.  But now Simon Gurski is down for months, and the injury count keeps on piling up.  They should rally as their team heals, but the question is whether they can outrun both Seattle and Sacramento.  I'm betting no.
2. Seattle (3-11 / 17-25):  Seattle loses Ronald Heisler and suddenly goes 3-11; not a coincidence.  He's back, but Seattle is now 5 games behind Sacramento, the most likely team for them to catch.    Slim odds.
3. Dallas (3-11 / 15-27):  No injuries for Dallas, just good-old-fashioned getting outclassed.  They're a super-young team with a bright future.  No rush.
4. Phoenix (6-8 / 15-27):  Phoenix had a good month, but has no serious shot at a playoff spot; without an incredible tear, which I doubt they have in them.
5. San Diego (8-6 / 14-28):  San Diego gets Earl Phan back, but this team has no shot.  
6. St. Louis (4-10 / 9-33):  More draft picks!
7. San Francisco (2-10 / 7-35):  Splat goes San Francisco!  Rebuilding time!

JNBA, Season 8, November

JNBA Season 8

End of November

East 

Playoff Teams:

1. Washington (22-6):  Jack Jay went down for two months, and won't be back until the end of December.  But Washington is still two games in first, which goes to show that this is still Washington's conference to lose.
2. Cincinnati (20-8):  Cincinnati's dominance this year has surprised everyone.  Steven Holmquist is a perennial All-Star, and no injuries have helped, but they have strong defenders across the board.  Maybe it's as simple as Steven Holmquist + No Injuries + acquiring Ramiro Deltrick = a year in contention.  But you can't forget that Holmquist especially has a reputation for injury, and the season is still young.
3. New Jersey (19-9):  New Jersey has managed a very respectable record in the face of two separate injuries to Joshua Chilton.  They're an injury prone team in general, but make no mistake, the addition of Jeffrey Sherer makes New Jersey the smart man's pick for the #2 team in the conference.
4. Pittsburgh (17-11):  Pittsburgh is enjoying its presence in the top 4, the first time every for the team to even be in playoff contention.  But Ronnie Gilfillian is out until the beginning of January, and Pittsburgh will fall off a bit.  But I think Pittsburgh has a legitimate shot at home-court in the first round of the playoffs.
5. Atlanta (17-11):  Atlanta is another mystery.  They have more or less the same team as last year, only now they're in 5th place.  Then again, they just lost Albert Bolling for a month, so we'll see where things shake up in the new year.
6. Philadelphia (16-12):  Philly's a team still on the slow rise.  They have no stars, unless you count the shut-down defender Ernesto Mervis, but they're deep and injury resistant.  And young.  Philly should make the playoffs, and should have a bright future.
7. Boston (15-13):  Boston's season has been a bit disappointing.  To be sure, they've avoided injuries and are on the hunt for a playoff spot, something Boston doesn't have a lot of experience with.  The future is built on Archambeault and Beardsley, and that future may take a bit to come to fruition.
8. Miami (15-13):  Miami's success has been modest, but nevertheless notable.  They boast arguably the finest defense in the JNBA, which would be more impressive if their offense were less anemic.  Nevertheless, they have a reasonable shot at getting a playoff spot this year.  And with the incredible haul they're owed in the draft in the coming year, they could be well set in the future.

Non-Playoff Teams:

1. Baltimore (14-14):  Baltimore has had a surprisingly good season for a team in the rebuild.  But they've lucked into a lack of injuries, and I don't expect them to continue their performance.
2. Tampa Bay (13-15):  First time Tampa's not been in the playoff picture.  Ever.  I expect them to improve markedly.  Just from sheer balance.
3. Orlando (10-18):  Orlando's assumption that they could lose Ronnie Gilfillian and still make the playoffs was proved quite mistaken.  To be sure, they have a lot of upside, and Todd Witte combined with Larry Caro could be very good indeed.  But not this year.
4. Chicago (9-19):  Chicago should not be ruled out yet.  They've been missing Rodney McDougal for the last month.  Without McDougal, Chicago is a bottom four team.  With him, they'll likely make the playoffs.  So we'll see.
5. New York (9-19):  New York was absolutely riddled with injuries.  This is expected, they may still rally.  But they're down Ronny Szeto for the season, and that's no good.
6. Detroit (9-19):  Yeah.  They suck.
7. Cleveland (5-23):  But more.  

West:

Playoff Teams:

1. Houston (25-3):  Houston's acquisition of Mike Colvin seems to have gone swimmingly; a three loss two-month stretch is about as good as it gets.  But they'll need every advantage they can get past Kansas City.
2. Kansas City (24-4):  One game down from Houston, and they haven't had Sean Caswell for a month.  Read into that whatever you will.
3. Denver (18-10):  Sure, they lost Manuel Greenlee for a month.  But they're six games back from Kansas City, and they still have what, on paper, should be one of the very best lineups in the league.  Anything less than a top-2 seed will be considered a disappointment.
4. Minnesota (18-10):  Minnesota's putting together another strong season.  Brett Whitesell is leading the team with new addition Johnny Edmonson, and they're making a great case for a top 4 seed.
5. Los Angeles (17-11):  An remarkably solid team, top to bottom.  We'll see if they can keep this up.
6. San Antonio (15-13):  A rough opening, but there is plenty of room for improvement, especially when Horney returns from injury.
7. Portland (15-13):  Darrell Stickel is making Portland a surprisingly contentious team this year, but we'll see if they can actually stay the course.
8. Seattle (14-14):  Seattle's been putting together a solid season, with the addition of Ronald Heisler (now down with injury), but in the West, they'll need every advantage they can.

Non-Playoff Teams:

1. Las Vegas (14-14):  Las Vegas has been missing All-Star center Franklin Crowl for a month, and it has hurt.  But look for them to rebound into the playoffs.
2. Sacramento (13-15):  Sacramento lost Adam Jason and Alan Farber to injury, but this is a playoff team without a doubt.
3. Dallas (12-16):  #1 pick Stephen Abrego has held his own quite well, but this is not the year for Dallas to make the playoffs.
4. Phoenix (9-19):  The addition of Clifford Selfridge has done nothing to make this team a playoff contender.  
5. San Diego (6-22):  This franchise is in serious rebuilding mode.
6. San Francisco (5-23):  Losing Brandon Huffman from the season so early completely decided the season.  
7. St. Louis (5-23):  Alas for St. Louis.  They have a lot of upside, but it's all several years down the road.